Yearn For a Return To Normalcy?

The world's economy is not fully emerge from recession after global meltdown. Post-crisis was creating many wishes and fantasies that thing will be going back to where it used to be. However, to be realistic, let's call it out here - that there will be no going home again for the average of us.

The surest thing now is that the business environment and its whole landscape has been forever altered. Many global companies(MNCs) and financial institutions not only affected badly, but some even wiped out from the market such as Lehman Brothers. Googling for and browsing at Lehman's website today creates a kind of loss and historical feeling; and it is as good to say - study about dinosaur extinction !

In the aftermath of this unprecedented crisis, regulators(Central Banks) and governments around the globe will now map out better control mechanism. Expectation on "rational behavior" that suppose to safeguard us from faulty or bad decisions economically is now no longer reliable.

In assessing this post-crisis issue, the psychology is now also going to be totally different. The new economic order is very interesting and promising, however, it is too early to yearn for "return to normalcy" after many months living in uncertainties.

Bracing For Hard Times

I've been not posting any article for a long time since Nov 08 to attend to more pressing matters.

The starting point of a credit crisis that caused current global recession is generally a kind of "Goldilocks Scenario." It is characterized by overwhelming liquidity (not only on the investor side, but also for companies), by low default (and high recovery) rates, and by subdued risk aversion among credit investors. Global recession sparked by a chain of reactions happened in this order:

It started with excessive liquidity, then linked to -> excessive lending -> excessive leverage -> excessive risk-taking. Then, this activities followed by tremendous spread tightening especially in credit derivatives universe, then trail by credit bubble - exogenous shocks and/or fundamental dislocations. Lastly, the burst of the bubble that caused the spiral global credit crunch which in general all the economist called it "global recession." And today the crisis is really really really global.

In summary; this is how normal folks like us to understand what actually happened in this sequence:1) First-order effects: direct credit-linked losses(investments). 2) 2nd round effects: Spillover effects onto other financial market segments. 3) 3rd round effects: Spillover effects onto the real economy. I'm sorry for unable to put this in simple term, but how to explain it to our normal folks in the villages or smaller towns. Just explain and focus on the 3rd round effects will do, e.g. :

1) Reduction of rubber prices from what used to be around RM4.00++/kg to around RM1.00++/kg.
2) Reduction of CPO prices from what used to be around RM4,500/ton in Jul 08 to hovering around RM1,200/ton in early Nov 08.
3) Add on - closing down of Western Digital in Kuching Sarawak(Malaysia) and many employees being laid off as the business cannot maintain cash flow stream to keep afloat due to contraction in production demands.

We have to somehow to face it right here and now especially for the first 6 months of 2009. That is the time where the real 3rd round effects will be 'acute' and nobody knows when it will last or hit the rock bottom. The best way is to downsize in everything that non-core in our daily expenses. In my case, I adapt to the crisis with no driving to my work place daily, just come inside Light Rail Transit(LRT) capsule and within 30 minutes will reach my office. The car just park at driveway and just need to start once a while or joining colleagues for short coffee talks after working hours.

By just doing that small adjustment, the saving on fuel, tolls, and parking fees can be quite substantial. Skip the unnecessary jammed and stress. I can relax and better prepared for the day far ahead of the curve - reading books, journals, periodicals, pullouts etc. We have to change, adapt, and look for many options for efficiency during this tumultuous times.

Hibernating

I have found this interesting news cutting from The Borneo Post - one of Sarawak's dailies, and think it is worth to share here. I found it motivational as far as topic on adaptation or survival is concerned.

LONDON: Scientists have found an Antarctic fish that hibernates to conserve energy during the long southern-winters. The cod Notothenia Coriiceps enters a dormant state, similar to hibernation in land animals like Hedgehogs, British scientists said. Researchers already knew Antarctic fish had antifreeze chemicals in their blood and their ability to effectively put themselves "on ice" is another remarkable adaptation to an extreme environtment. - Reuters
Deatils - url: http://filaman.ifm-geomar.de/Summary/SpeciesSummary.php?id=4702

How great is God creation!

Chameleon

As we just started the first working day in 2008, today's tough challenge is: do we have to do things the same old ways in the past?

How could we do differently in 2008 to produce better results in all of our life spheres?

• Personal life
• Family life
• Business/work/career life
• Financial life
• Community/global life
• Spiritual life

Why do certain segments of people very successful in one or any combination of the above spheres year after year, and others just didn't made it?

What could be the differentiator between this two extremes?

Actually it was differentiated by a very thin line. The secret was the ability of the successful groups to accept changes, acclimatize, and camouflage themselves to any 'situational change' with new tactics and strategies to delibrately move on. The main problem with the unsuccessful groups was the resistance to change the way they had been doing things, and so they suffer the consequences which could lead to self-extinction!

One has to accept the fact that life itself is living. Nothing is stagnant - not even the planet earth and the whole universe. To live means need to change!

Ask yourself this question: How many instances when you refused change just because it was not compelling enough to you? If any, those were times when procrastination ruining your free right to unlimited success possibilities for fear of failure.

What kind of storyline you want to write for yourself if you knew that life could offers you with thousand unprecedented possibilities? It is about time that you start to envision your own destiny - a destiny to live by design and plan, but not by default and accident.

Note:

• Be a chameleon.
• How about dinosaur?
• Change management.
• When is your episode to succeed - could it be in 2008 or beyond?